Uncertainty refers to the lack of confidence or precision associated with predictions made by a model. It reflects the model’s acknowledgment that it may not have complete knowledge or certainty about the correct outcome for a given input.

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Uncertainty Quantification for In-Context Learning of Large Language Models

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In-context learning has emerged as a groundbreaking ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) and revolutionized various fields by providing a few task-relevant demonstrations in the prompt. However, trustworthy issues with LLM’s response, such as hallucination, have also been actively discussed. Existing works have been devoted to quantifying the uncertainty in LLM’s response, but they often overlook the complex nature of LLMs and the uniqueness of in-context learning. In this work, we delve into the predictive uncertainty of LLMs associated with in-context learning, highlighting that such uncertainties may stem from both the provided demonstrations (aleatoric uncertainty) and ambiguities tied to the model’s configurations (epistemic uncertainty). We propose a novel formulation and corresponding estimation method to quantify both types of uncertainties. The proposed method offers an unsupervised way to understand the prediction of in-context learning in a plug-and-play fashion. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the decomposition. The code and data are available at: https://github.com/lingchen0331/UQ_ICL.

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Improving Open Information Extraction with Large Language Models: A Study on Demonstration Uncertainty

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Open Information Extraction (OIE) task aims at extracting structured facts from unstructured text, typically in the form of (subject, relation, object) triples. Despite the potential of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT as a general task solver, they lag behind state-of-the-art (supervised) methods in OIE tasks due to two key issues. First, LLMs struggle to distinguish irrelevant context from relevant relations and generate structured output due to the restrictions on fine-tuning the model. Second, LLMs generate responses autoregressively based on probability, which makes the predicted relations lack confidence. In this paper, we assess the capabilities of LLMs in improving the OIE task. Particularly, we propose various in-context learning strategies to enhance LLM’s instruction-following ability and a demonstration uncertainty quantification module to enhance the confidence of the generated relations. Our experiments on three OIE benchmark datasets show that our approach holds its own against established supervised methods, both quantitatively and qualitatively.

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SEED: Sound Event Early Detection via Evidential Uncertainty

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Sound Event Early Detection (SEED) is an essential task in recognizing the acoustic environments and soundscapes. However, most of the existing methods focus on the offline sound event detection, which suffers from the over-confidence issue of early-stage event detection and usually yield unreliable results. To solve the problem, we propose a novel Polyphonic Evidential Neural Network (PENet) to model the evidential uncertainty of the class probability with Beta distribution. Specifically, we use a Beta distribution to model the distribution of class probabilities, and the evidential uncertainty enriches uncertainty representation with evidence information, which plays a central role in reliable prediction. To further improve the event detection performance, we design the backtrack inference method that utilizes both the forward and backward audio features of an ongoing event. Experiments on the DESED database show that the proposed method can simultaneously improve 13.0% and 3.8% in time delay and detection F1 score compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

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Fusing the Old with the New: Learning Relative Pose with Geometry-Guided Uncertainty

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Learning methods for relative camera pose estimation have been developed largely in isolation from classical geometric approaches. The question of how to integrate predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs) and solutions from geometric solvers, such as the 5-point algorithm [37], has as yet remained under-explored. In this paper, we present a novel framework that involves probabilistic fusion between the two families of predictions during network training, with a view to leveraging their complementary benefits in a learnable way. The fusion is achieved by learning the DNN un- certainty under explicit guidance by the geometric uncertainty, thereby learning to take into account the geometric solution in relation to the DNN prediction. Our network features a self-attention graph neural network, which drives the learning by enforcing strong interactions between different correspondences and potentially modeling complex relationships between points. We propose motion parmeterizations suitable for learning and show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the challenging DeMoN [61] and ScanNet [8] datasets. While we focus on relative pose, we envision that our pipeline is broadly applicable for fusing classical geometry and deep learning.

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