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Causal Structure Learning Analysis refers to the process of using statistical and computational methods to infer the causal relationships among variables from observational or experimental data. This analysis involves techniques such as graphical models and other causal inference methods to uncover the underlying causal structure of a system.

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MARLIN: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Incremental DAG Discovery

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Uncovering causal structures from observational data is crucial for understanding complex systems and making informed decisions. While reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in identifying these structures in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), existing methods often lack efficiency, making them unsuitable for online applications. In this paper, we propose MARLIN, an efficient multi-agent RL-based approach for incremental DAG learning. MARLIN uses a DAG generation policy that maps a continuous real-valued space to the DAG space as an intra-batch strategy, then incorporates two RL agents — state-specific and state-invariant — to uncover causal relationships and integrates these agents into an incremental learning framework. Furthermore, the framework leverages a factored action space to enhance parallelization efficiency. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that MARLIN out-performs state-of-the-art methods in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness.

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Online Multi-modal Root Cause Identification in Microservice Systems

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Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is essential for pinpointing the root causes of failures in microservice systems. Traditional data-driven RCA methods are typically limited to offline applications due to high computational demands, and existing online RCA methods handle only single-modal data, overlooking complex interactions in multi-modal systems. In this paper, we introduce OCEAN, a novel online multi-modal causal structure learning method for root cause localization. OCEAN introduces a long-term temporal causal learning module with two encoders: one captures stable causal dependencies from historical data, while the other models short-term variations in the current batch data. We further design a multi-factor attention mechanism to analyze and reassess the relationships among different metrics and log indicators/attributes for enhanced online causal graph learning. Additionally, a contrastive mutual information maximization-based graph fusion module is developed to effectively model the relationships across various modalities. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed method.

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Interdependent Causal Networks for Root Cause Localization

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The goal of root cause analysis is to identify the underlying causes of system problems by discovering and analyzing the causal structure from system monitoring data. It is indispensable for maintaining the stability and robustness of large-scale complex systems. Existing methods mainly focus on the construction of a single effective isolated causal network, whereas many real-world systems are complex and exhibit interdependent structures (i.e., multiple networks of a system are interconnected by cross-network links). In interdependent networks, the malfunctioning effects of problematic system entities can propagate to other networks or different levels of system entities. Consequently, ignoring the interdependency results in suboptimal root cause analysis outcomes.In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery (TCD) and Individual Causal Discovery (ICD). The TCD component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walk with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The ICD component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity’s metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

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