Time Series Forecasting is the process of predicting future values based on historical data points collected over time. It identifies patterns such as trends, seasonality, and cycles within the data to make predictions. Techniques like statistical methods (ARIMA), machine learning, and deep learning (LSTM) are commonly used. Time series forecasting is widely applied in fields like finance, energy, weather prediction, and supply chain management to inform decision-making and optimize resource allocation.
Procurement teams lose time and money to inaccurate demand forecasts and manual supplier negotiations. A new framework from NEC Corporation and NEC Laboratories America combines automated negotiation with multimodal AI forecasting to optimize both sides of the procurement process.
Procurement is a key function in supply chain management that involves acquiring goods and services to meet organizational needs. Efficient procurement is crucial for minimizing costs, ensuring timely delivery, and maintaining quality standards. This paper explores the integration of automated negotiation and multimodal time-series forecasting to enhance procurement processes. Automated negotiation can streamline interactions with suppliers, while multimodal time-series forecasting can improve demand prediction accuracy by leveraging diverse data sources leading to better negotiation outputs. By combining these approaches, organizations can optimize procurement strategies, reduce costs, and improve overall supply chain efficiency. We present two case studies using simulations based on real-world data for procurement that show the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Time series, typically represented as numerical sequences, can also be transformed into images and texts, offering multi-modal views (MMVs) of the same underlying signal. These MMVs can reveal complementary patterns and enable the use of powerful pre-trained large models, such as large vision models (LVMs), for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF). However, as we identified in this work, the state-of-the-art (SOTA) LVM-based forecaster poses an inductive bias towards forecasting periods. To harness this bias, we propose DMMV, a novel decomposition-based multi-modal view framework that leverages trend-seasonal decomposition and a novel backcast residual based adaptive decomposition to integrate MMVs for LTSF. Comparative evaluations against 14 SOTA models across diverse datasets show that DMMV outperforms single-view and existing multi-modal baselines, achieving the best mean squared error (MSE) on 6 out of 8 benchmark datasets. The code for this paper is available at: https://github.com/D2I-Group/dmmv.
Extreme events frequently occur in real-world time series and often carry significant practical implications. In domains such as climate and healthcare, these events, such as floods, heatwaves, or acute medical episodes, can lead to serious consequences. Accurate forecasting of such events is therefore of substantial importance. Most existing time series forecasting models are optimized for overall performance within the prediction window, but often struggle to accurately predict extreme events, such as high temperatures or heart rate spikes. The main challenges are data imbalance and the neglect of valuable information contained in intermediate events that precede extreme events. In this paper, we propose xTime, a novel framework for extreme event forecasting in time series. xTime leverages knowledge distillation to transfer information from models trained on lower-rarity events, thereby improving prediction performance on rarer ones. In addition, we introduce a MoE mechanism that dynamically selects and fuses outputs from expert models across different rarity levels, which further improves the forecasting performance for extreme events. Experiments on multiple datasets show that xTime achieves consistent improvements, with forecasting accuracy on extreme events improving from 3% to 78%.
Time series data is essential in various applications, including climate modeling, healthcare monitoring, and financial analytics. Understanding the contextual information associated with real-world time series data is often essential for accurate and reliable event predictions. In this paper, we introduce TimeCAP, a time-series processing framework that creatively employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as contextualizers of time series data, extending their typical usage as predictors. TimeCAP incorporates two independent LLM agents: one generates a textual summary capturing the context of the time series, while the other uses this enriched summary to make more informed predictions. In addition, TimeCAP employs a multi-modal encoder that synergizes with the LLM agents, enhancing predictive performance through mutual augmentation of inputs with in-context examples. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeCAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series event prediction, including those utilizing LLMs as predictors, achieving an average improvement of 28.75% in F1 score.
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NEC Laboratories America, Inc. (NEC Labs) is the US-based center for NEC Corporation’s global network of corporate research laboratories. Our diverse research groups collaborate with industry, academia and governments to provide disruptive solutions to complex problems. A leader in the integration of IT and network technologies with more than 100 years of expertise, NEC provides a combination of products and solutions that cross-utilize the company’s experience and global resources to meet the complex and ever-changing needs of its customers.