Yanchi Liu NEC Labs America

Yanchi Liu

Senior Researcher

Data Science and System Security

Posts

Dynamic Gaussian Mixture based Deep Generative Model For Robust Forecasting on Sparse Multivariate Time Series

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Forecasting on Sparse Multivariate Time Series Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS’s individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS’s, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting time series. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

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T2-Net: A Semi-supervised Deep Model for Turbulence Forecasting

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Accurate air turbulence forecasting can help airlines avoid hazardous turbulence, guide the routes that keep passengers safe, maximize efficiency, and reduce costs. Traditional turbulence forecasting approaches heavily rely on painstakingly customized turbulence indexes, which are less effective in dynamic and complex weather conditions. The recent availability of high-resolution weather data and turbulence records allows more accurate forecasting of the turbulence in a data-driven way. However, it is a non-trivial task for developing a machine learning based turbulence forecasting system due to two challenges: (1) Complex spatio-temporal correlations, turbulence is caused by air movement with complex spatio-temporal patterns, (2) Label scarcity, very limited turbulence labels can be obtained. To this end, in this paper, we develop a unified semi-supervised framework, T2-Net, to address the above challenges. Specifically, we first build an encoder-decoder paradigm based on the convolutional LSTM to model the spatio-temporal correlations. Then, to tackle the label scarcity problem, we propose a novel Dual Label Guessing method to take advantage of massive unlabeled turbulence data. It integrates complementary signals from the main Turbulence Forecasting task and the auxiliary Turbulence Detection task to generate pseudo-labels, which are dynamically utilized as additional training data. Finally, extensive experimental results on a real-world turbulence dataset validate the superiority of our method on turbulence forecasting.

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Inductive and Unsupervised Representation Learning on Graph Structured Objects

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Inductive and unsupervised graph learning is a critical technique for predictive or information retrieval tasks where label information is difficult to obtain. It is also challenging to make graph learning inductive and unsupervised at the same time, as learning processes guided by reconstruction error based loss functions inevitably demand graph similarity evaluation that is usually computationally intractable. In this paper, we propose a general framework SEED (Sampling, Encoding, and Embedding Distributions) for inductive and unsupervised representation learning on graph structured objects. Instead of directly dealing with the computational challenges raised by graph similarity evaluation, given an input graph, the SEED framework samples a number of subgraphs whose reconstruction errors could be efficiently evaluated, encodes the subgraph samples into a collection of subgraph vectors, and employs the embedding of the subgraph vector distribution as the output vector representation for the input graph. By theoretical analysis, we demonstrate the close connection between SEED and graph isomorphism. Using public benchmark datasets, our empirical study suggests the proposed SEED framework is able to achieve up to 10% improvement, compared with competitive baseline methods.

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Tensorized LSTM with Adaptive Shared Memory for Learning Trends in Multivariate Time Series

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The problem of learning and forecasting underlying trends in time series data arises in a variety of applications, such as traffic management, energy optimization, etc. In literature, a trend in time series is characterized by the slope and duration, and its prediction is then to forecast the two values of the subsequent trend given historical data of the time series. For this problem, existing approaches mainly deal with the case in univariate time series. However, in many real-world applications, there are multiple variables at play, and handling all of them at the same time is crucial for an accurate prediction. A natural way is to employ multi-task learning (MTL) techniques in which the trend learning of each time series is treated as a task. The key point of MTL is to learn task relatedness to achieve better parameter sharing, which however is challenging in trend prediction task. First, effectively modeling the complex temporal patterns in different tasks is hard as the temporal and spatial dimensions are entangled. Second, the relatedness among tasks may change over time. In this paper, we propose a neural network, DeepTrends, for multivariate time series trend prediction. The core module of DeepTrends is a tensorized LSTM with adaptive shared memory (TLASM). TLASM employs the tensorized LSTM to model the temporal patterns of long-term trend sequences in an MTL setting. With an adaptive shared memory, TLASM is able to learn the relatedness among tasks adaptively, based upon which it can dynamically vary degrees of parameter sharing among tasks. To further consider short-term patterns, DeepTrends utilizes a multi-task 1dCNN to learn the local time series features, and employs a task-specific sub-network to learn a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns for trend prediction. Extensive experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

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Asymmetrically Hierarchical Networks with Attentive Interactions for Interpretable Review-based Recommendation

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Recently, recommender systems have been able to emit substantially improved recommendations by leveraging user-provided reviews. Existing methods typically merge all reviews of a given user (item) into a long document, and then process user and item documents in the same manner. In practice, however, these two sets of reviews are notably different: users’ reviews reflect a variety of items that they have bought and are hence very heterogeneous in their topics, while an item’s reviews pertain only to that single item and are thus topically homogeneous. In this work, we develop a novel neural network model that properly accounts for this important difference by means of asymmetric attentive modules. The user module learns to attend to only those signals that are relevant with respect to the target item, whereas the item module learns to extract the most salient contents with regard to properties of the item. Our multi-hierarchical paradigm accounts for the fact that neither are all reviews equally useful, nor are all sentences within each review equally pertinent. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

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Exploiting Graph Regularized Multi-dimensional Hawkes Processes for Modeling Events with Spatio-temporal Characteristics

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Multi-dimensional Hawkes processes (MHP) has been widely used for modeling temporal events. However, when MHP was used for modeling events with spatio-temporal characteristics, the spatial information was often ignored despite its importance. In this paper, we introduce a framework to exploit MHP for modeling spatio-temporal events by considering both temporal and spatial information. Specifically, we design a graph regularization method to effectively integrate the prior spatial structure into MHP for learning influence matrix between different locations. Indeed, the prior spatial structure can be first represented as a connection graph. Then, a multi-view method is utilized for the alignment of the prior connection graph and influence matrix while preserving the sparsity and low-rank properties of the kernel matrix. Moreover, we develop an optimization scheme using an alternating direction method of multipliers to solve the resulting optimization problem. Finally, the experimental results show that we are able to learn the interaction patterns between different geographical areas more effectively with prior connection graph introduced for regularization.

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