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xTime: Extreme Event Prediction with Hierarchical Knowledge Distillation and Expert Fusion

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Extreme events frequently occur in real-world time series and often carry significant practical implications. In domains such as climate and healthcare, these events, such as floods, heatwaves, or acute medical episodes, can lead to serious consequences. Accurate forecasting of such events is therefore of substantial importance. Most existing time series forecasting models are optimized for overall performance within the prediction window, but often struggle to accurately predict extreme events, such as high temperatures or heart rate spikes. The main challenges are data imbalance and the neglect of valuable information contained in intermediate events that precede extreme events. In this paper, we propose xTime, a novel framework for extreme event forecasting in time series. xTime leverages knowledge distillation to transfer information from models trained on lower-rarity events, thereby improving prediction performance on rarer ones. In addition, we introduce a MoE mechanism that dynamically selects and fuses outputs from expert models across different rarity levels, which further improves the forecasting performance for extreme events. Experiments on multiple datasets show that xTime achieves consistent improvements, with forecasting accuracy on extreme events improving from 3% to 78%.

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Humanizing the Machine: Proxy Attacks to Mislead LLM Detectors

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The advent of large language models (LLMs) has revolutionized the field of text generation, producing outputs that closely mimic human-like writing. Although academic and industrial institutions have developed detectors to prevent the malicious usage of LLM-generated texts, other research has doubt about the robustness of these systems. To stress test these detectors, we introduce a humanized proxy-attack (HUMPA) strategy that effortlessly compromises LLMs, causing them to produce outputs that align with human-written text and mislead detection systems. Our method attacks the source model by leveraging a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuned humanized small language model (SLM) in the decoding phase. Through an in-depth analysis, we demonstrate that our attack strategy is capable of generating responses that are indistinguishable to detectors, preventing them from differentiating between machine-generated and human-written text. We conduct systematic evaluations on extensive datasets using proxy-attacked open-source models, including Llama2-13B, Llama3-70B, and Mixtral-8×7B in both white- and black-box settings. Our findings show that the proxy-attack strategy effectively deceives the leading detectors, resulting in an average AUROC drop of 70.4% across multiple datasets, with a maximum drop of 95.0% on a single dataset. Furthermore, in cross-discipline scenarios, our strategy also bypasses these detectors, leading to a significant relative decrease of up to 90.9%, while in cross-language scenario, the drop reaches 91.3%. Despite our proxy-attack strategy successfully bypassing the detectors with such significant relative drops, we find that the generation quality of the attacked models remains preserved, even within a modest utility budget, when compared to the text produced by the original, unattacked source model.

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Protecting Your LLMs with Information Bottleneck

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The advent of large language models (LLMs) has revolutionized the field of natural language processing, yet they might be attacked to produce harmful content. Despite efforts to ethically align LLMs, these are often fragile and can be circumvented by jailbreaking attacks through optimized or manual adversarial prompts. To address this, we introduce the Information Bottleneck Protector (IBProtector), a defense mechanism grounded in the information bottleneck principle, and we modify the objective to avoid trivial solutions. The IBProtector selectively compresses and perturbs prompts, facilitated by a lightweight and trainable extractor, preserving only essential information for the target LLMs to respond with the expected answer. Moreover, we further consider a situation where the gradient is not visible to be compatible with any LLM. Our empirical evaluations show that IBProtector outperforms current defense methods in mitigating jailbreak attempts, without overly affecting response quality or inference speed. Its effectiveness and adaptability across various attack methods and target LLMs underscore the potential of IBProtector as a novel, transferable defense that bolsters the security of LLMs without requiring modifications to the underlying models.

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InfuserKI: Enhancing Large Language Models with Knowledge Graphs via Infuser-Guided Knowledge Integration (EMNLP 2024)

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Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved exceptional capabilities in open generation across various domains, yet they encounter difficulties with tasks that require intensive knowledge. To address these challenges, methods for integrating knowledge have been developed, which augment LLMs with domain-specific knowledge graphs through external modules. These approaches, however, face data inefficiency issues as they necessitate the processing of both known and unknown knowledge for fine-tuning. Thus, our research focuses on a novel problem: efficiently integrating unknown knowledge into LLMs without unnecessary overlap of known knowledge. A risk of introducing new knowledge is the potential forgetting of existing knowledge. To mitigate this risk, we propose the innovative InfuserKI framework. This framework employs transformer internal states to determine when to enrich LLM outputs with additional information, effectively preventing knowledge forgetting. Performance evaluations using the UMLS-2.5k and MetaQA domain knowledge graphs reveal that InfuserKI not only successfully integrates new knowledge but also outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing knowledge forgetting by 9% and 6%, respectively.

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InfuserKI: Enhancing Large Language Models with Knowledge Graphs via Infuser-Guided Knowledge Integration (VLDB 2024)

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Though Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable open-generation capabilities across diverse domains, they struggle with knowledge-intensive tasks. To alleviate this issue, knowledge integration methods have been proposed to enhance LLMs with domain-specific knowledge graphs using external modules. However, they suffer from data inefficiency as they require both known and unknown knowledge for fine-tuning. Thus, we study a novel problem of integrating unknown knowledge into LLMs efficiently without unnecessary overlap of known knowledge. Injecting new knowledge poses the risk of forgetting previously acquired knowledge. To tackle this, we propose a novel Infuser-Guided Knowledge Integration (InfuserKI) framework that utilizes transformer internal states to determine whether to enhance the original LLM output with additional information, thereby effectively mitigating knowledge forgetting. Evaluations on the UMLS-2.5k and MetaQA domain knowledge graphs demonstrate that InfuserKI can effectively acquire new knowledge and outperform state-of-the-art baselines by 9% and 6%, respectively, in reducing knowledge forgetting.

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Pruning as a Domain-specific LLM Extractor

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Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable proficiency across a wide array of NLP tasks. However, the escalation in model size also engenders substantial deployment costs. While few efforts have explored model pruning techniques to reduce the size of LLMs, they mainly center on general or task-specific weights. This leads to suboptimal performance due to lacking specificity on the target domain or generality on different tasks when applied to domain-specific challenges. This work introduces an innovative unstructured dual-pruning methodology, D-PRUNER, for domain-specific compression on LLM. It extracts a compressed, domain-specific, and task agnostic LLM by identifying LLM weights that are pivotal for general capabilities, like linguistic capability and multi-task solving, and domain-specific knowledge. More specifically, we first assess general weight importance by quantifying the error incurred upon their removal with the help of an open-domain calibration dataset. Then, we utilize this general weight importance to refine the training loss, so that it preserves generality when fitting into a specific domain. Moreover, by efficiently approximating weight importance with the refined training loss on a domain-specific calibration dataset, we obtain a pruned model emphasizing generality and specificity. Our comprehensive experiments across various tasks in healthcare and legal domains show the effectiveness of D-PRUNER in domain-specific compression. Our code is available at https: //github.com/psunlpgroup/D-Pruner.

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Parametric Augmentation for Time Series Contrastive Learning

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Modern techniques like contrastive learning have been effectively used in many areas, including computer vision, natural language processing, and graph-structured data. Creating positive examples that assist the model in learning robust and discriminative representations is a crucial stage in contrastive learning approaches. Usually, preset human intuition directs the selection of relevant data augmentations. Due to patterns that are easily recognized by humans, this rule of thumb works well in the vision and language domains. However, it is impractical to visually inspect the temporal structures in time series. The diversity of time series augmentations at both the dataset and instance levels makes it difficult to choose meaningful augmentations on the fly. In this study, we address this gap by analyzing time series data augmentation using information theory and summarizing the most commonly adopted augmentations in a unified format. We then propose a contrastive learning framework with parametric augmentation, AutoTCL, which can be adaptively employed to support time series representation learning. The proposed approach is encoder-agnostic, allowing it to be seamlessly integrated with different backbone encoders. Experiments on univariate forecasting tasks demonstrate the highly competitive results of our method, with an average 6.5% reduction in MSE and 4.7% in MAE over the leading baselines. In classification tasks, AutoTCL achieves a 1.2% increase in average accuracy. The source code is available at https://github.com/AslanDing/AutoTCL.

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Towards Robust Fidelity for Evaluating Explainability of Graph Neural Networks

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Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are neural models that leverage the dependency structure in graphical data via message passing among the graph nodes. GNNs have emerged as pivotal architectures in analyzing graph-structured data, and their expansive application in sensitive domains requires a comprehensive understanding of their decision-making processes — necessitating a framework for GNN explainability. An explanation function for GNNs takes a pre-trained GNN along with a graph as input, to produce a ‘sufficient statistic’ subgraph with respect to the graph label. A main challenge in studying GNN explainability is to provide f idelity measures that evaluate the performance of these explanation functions. This paper studies this foundational challenge, spotlighting the inherent limitations of prevailing fidelity metrics, including Fid+, Fid?, and Fid?. Specifically, a formal, information-theoretic definition of explainability is introduced and it is shown that existing metrics often fail to align with this definition across various statistical scenarios. The reason is due to potential distribution shifts when subgraphs are removed in computing these fidelity measures. Subsequently, a robust class of fidelity measures are introduced, and it is shown analytically that they are resilient to distribution shift issues and are applicable in a wide range of scenarios. Extensive empirical analysis on both synthetic and real datasets are provided to illustrate that the proposed metrics are more coherent with gold standard metrics. The source code is available at https://trustai4s-lab.github.io/fidelity.

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Dynamic Causal Discovery in Imitation Learning

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Imitation learning, which learns agent policy by mimicking expert demonstration, has shown promising results in many applications such as medical treatment regimes and self-driving vehicles. However, it remains a difficult task to interpret control policies learned by the agent. Difficulties mainly come from two aspects: 1) agents in imitation learning are usually implemented as deep neural networks, which are black-box models and lack interpretability; 2) the latent causal mechanism behind agents’ decisions may vary along the trajectory, rather than staying static throughout time steps. To increase transparency and offer better interpretability of the neural agent, we propose to expose its captured knowledge in the form of a directed acyclic causal graph, with nodes being action and state variables and edges denoting the causal relations behind predictions. Furthermore, we design this causal discovery process to be state-dependent, enabling it to model the dynamics in latent causal graphs. Concretely, we conduct causal discovery from the perspective of Granger causality and propose a self-explainable imitation learning framework, CAIL. The proposed framework is composed of three parts: a dynamic causal discovery module, a causality encoding module, and a prediction module, and is trained in an end-to-end manner. After the model is learned, we can obtain causal relations among states and action variables behind its decisions, exposing policies learned by it. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed CAIL in learning the dynamic causal graphs for understanding the decision-making of imitation learning meanwhilemaintaining high prediction accuracy.

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AutoTCL: Automated Time Series Contrastive Learning with Adaptive Augmentations

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Read AutoTCL: Automated Time Series Contrastive Learning with Adaptive Augmentations publication. Modern techniques like contrastive learning have been effectively used in many areas, including computer vision, natural language processing, and graph-structured data. Creating positive examples that assist the model in learning robust and discriminative representations is a crucial stage in contrastive learning approaches. Usually, preset human intuition directs the selection of relevant data augmentations. Due to patterns that are easily recognized by humans, this rule of thumb works well in the vision and language domains. However, it is impractical to visually inspect the temporal structures in time series. The diversity of time series augmentations at both the dataset and instance levels makes it difficult to choose meaningful augmentations on the fly. Thus, although prevalent, contrastive learning with data augmentation has been less studied in the time series domain. In this study, we address this gap by analyzing time series data augmentation using information theory and summarizing the most commonly adopted augmentations in a unified format. We then propose a parameterized augmentation method, AutoTCL, which can be adaptively employed to support time series representation learning. The proposed approach is encoder-agnostic, allowing it to be seamlessly integrated with different backbone encoders. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the highly competitive results of our method, with an average 10.3% reduction in MSE and 7.0% in MAE over the leading baselines.

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